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Official data from Monday, January 13, showed that China’s trade surplus with the rest of the world surged to an unprecedented $992 billion in 2024.
December saw the trade surplus reach a monthly record of $104.8 billion, up from $97.4 billion in November. Exports rose 10.7% year-on-year while imports grew just 1%. The widening gap has prompted accusations from trading partners that Chinese surpluses are unsustainable and risk deindustrialising other economies.
The surplus, which eclipsed previous records, was driven by a sustained export push that saw Chinese manufacturers step up shipments to offset weak domestic demand. More than a third of the surplus came from trade with the US, where the bilateral imbalance grew 6.9% to $361.03 billion.
China’s exports to the US as a share of total shipments had declined slightly to 14.7% in 2024 from 14.8% a year earlier.
Donald Trump, who takes office next week, has pledged tariffs of up to 60% on Chinese goods and a blanket 20% tariff on all US trading partners. Swiss bank UBS expects the China tariffs to reduce China’s GDP by 2.5 percentage points over the following 12 months.
Chinese manufacturers have increasingly diversified their export markets, with shipments to Southeast Asian countries rising to 16.4% of total exports in 2024, up from 15.5% in 2023. However, his strategy could face challenges if the US targets the re-routing of Chinese exports through regional partners.
Under President Xi Jinping’s push to develop “new productive forces,” China has become a leading producer of green energy products such as solar panels and electric vehicle batteries, surpassing Japan as the world’s largest car exporter.
With global trade uncertainties likely to pick up as new tariffs take place, the front-loading boost may fade and more policy support will be needed to boost domestic demand.
