Since Malawi is landlocked, it relies on Tanzania’s ports for international trade. Therefore, its top exports – raw tobacco, tea, legumes, soybeans, and sugar – will suffer, particularly since its top trading partners are international (with Germany and India as leading destinations).

The export of fertiliser to Malawi will also be suspended.

South African exports which will be hit include various fruits, including apples and grapes. While relatively muted compared with the impact of Tanzania’s move on Malawi’s economy, South Africa is heavily reliant on exports. Already weakened by 31% tariffs from the US ($500 million worth of South Africa’s $13.7 billion in agricultural exports go to the US), the country may now struggle in the intra-regional reorientation which many other economies are enjoying.

Tanzania has also halted the transit of any agricultural goods through its territory to either country, stymying Malawi’s international importing capability in particular.

Tanzanian Minister of Agriculture Hussein Bashe has justified this policy as retaliatory. Both Malawi and South Africa have embargoes on Tanzanian produce. 

This refers to Malawi’s ban on the import of certain produce, which was apparently designed as a temporary measure: a “strategic move to create an environment where local businesses can thrive without the immediate pressure of foreign competition,” according to Malawi’s Trade Minister, Vitumbiko Mumba at the time.

Tanzania, Malawi, and South Africa are all members of the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) regional economic bloc. This may grow fraught with Bashe’s emphasis that Tanzania will begin to act in defence of its national sovereignty.