Estimated reading time: 0 minutes

A new wave of Trump trade policies targeting Chinese imports of consumer goods from budget online stores like Shein and Temu showcase Trump’s continued efforts to curb foreign imports, using a wide array of methods beyond blanket tariffs. However, Vincent Clerc, head of shipping giant Maersk, told the Financial Times today that this, and Trump’s tariff regime as a whole, could have less of an impact on global trade volumes than was initially thought if consumer demand and purchasing power remains stable. 

The US Postal Service (USPS) announced today it would suspend delivery of all parcels coming from China and Hong Kong without an explanation. At the same time, the new package of tariffs against China included the closure of a little-known loophole, making imports of cheap consumer goods more expensive and cumbersome. 

Trump’s new tariffs on China, announced on Monday 3 February, made headlines for enacting 10% levies on all goods imported from the country, on top of already existing duties. This has sent shock waves through the world of global trade, as exporters, logistics companies, and governments of the US’s trade partners wait to see how the new tariff regime – which Trump has promised will extend to Canada, Mexico, and the EU soon – affects global demand.

However, fears that this will bring global trade to its knees may be overblown, suggests the Maersk chief executive. “The reason why we don’t expect a massive impact is what really matters is not tariffs but what the purchasing power of consumers looks like,” Clerc said. It will be hard to measure the impact of any tariffs until their details are announced, they are enacted, and consumers have a chance to adjust their behaviour. 

The de minimis exception is just one example of the way tariffs can have unexpected effects and affect different aspects of trade differently. Trump’s promised tariffs have often been less disruptive in practice than in theory: campaign promises of 60% tariffs on all Chinese goods only materialised as 10% levies, and talk of similar measures against Canada, Mexico, and the EU has yet to materialise into concrete policies. It makes sense, then, that world trade is waiting to see how the tariff threats play out before being too pessimistic. Maersk, for example, still forecasts a 4% growth in global trade in 2025, up from 3.3% in 2024, showing optimism in trade’s resilience even in the face of tariffs.

A condition hidden in the fine print of the tariffs, however, could have just as much impact as the headline rate, with an immediate effect on consumer imports from Chinese consumer retail giants. Trump’s new package of tariffs removes the de minimis exception, which had allowed shipments with a value of under $800 to bypass customs checks and be exempt from tariffs. The new tariffs apply to all goods imported from China, regardless of destination or shipment size, meaning prices of many low-cost imports of retail consumer goods are expected to skyrocket.

This is expected to significantly challenge the business models of retail giants that appeal to American consumers with low prices and a wide range of products, from clothes to furniture and craft supplies. Companies like Temu and Shein often rely on US logistics companies and USPS to get goods to their final destinations; their imports fly largely under the radar at customs as the value of each individual shipment is often lower than the minimum value that would trigger scrutiny or duties. 

This move forms part of the Trump administration’s plan to enact tariffs on many of its most important trading partners in an effort to promote the US economy and discourage unwanted behaviour, such as illegal immigration or the import of fentanyl which Trump has blamed on Canada, Mexico, and China. This sweeping tariff regime was a focal point of Trump’s campaign, and the world of trade has been anxiously waiting to see the extent to which these promises will materialize.

The newly announced policies show that, if nothing else, Trump’s administration knows how to make tariffs effective, hitting Chinese importers where it hurts. The news of the removal of the de minimis sent Temu’s parent company’s stocks tumbling by 6%, with a similar impact felt by fellow low-cost retailers Shopify, Alibaba, and JD.com. 

While in the long term, increasing the price of Chinese imports could boost domestic production, it is likely to leave many Americans priced out of key consumer goods: research has found that the removal of the de minimis will disproportionately impact the poorest section of the population, who form the bulk of Temu’s and Shein’s customers and rely on them for many basic goods.  

The move signals an important shift, from just enacting blanket tariffs to physically stopping goods from moving around and broadening the scope of the measures to target even the smallest shipments. This shows a continued commitment by the US to curb Chinese imports, and could bring the world closer to a trade war between the two largest global economies.

While promised tariff hikes on many US allies have either failed to materialise – as on the EU – or been postponed thanks to negotiations – as Canada and Mexico – today’s announcements show that Trump’s China tariff regime is alive and well. Beijing has already responded to the initial tariff announcement with tariffs of 15% on US coal and 10% on other industrial goods like agricultural machinery and cars and could retaliate to the new measures with higher or broader-sweeping tariffs. However, as Maersk’s continued confidence in global trade shows, it is far too early to make significant predictions about the effect of any of these tariffs on consumer demand and measure their effect on world trade.

The Trump administration’s aggressive protectionist measures show not just its commitment to sticking to its promised tariffs, but should also serve as a warning to exporters everywhere that trade barriers come in many forms, and can be manipulated in more than one way.