This is one of the most consequential US elections in history, which has been mainly determined by what’s at stake in an ideological or geopolitical domain.

But we at TFG think it’s essential to fully explore what Donald Trump’s second presidential victory may mean for the world of trade, treasury, and payments. It’s with this regard that President Trump can redefine the world.

We recorded an emergency livestream with four industry heavyweights:

◾ Dr Rebecca Harding, Independent Trade Economist, REBECCANOMICS LIMITED
◾ Dr Robert Besseling, CEO, PANGEA-RISK
◾ Simon Evenett, Professor of Geopolitics & Strategy, IMD Business School, Co-Chair, World Economic Forum Global Future Council on Trade & Investment
◾ Dr Alisa DiCaprio, Former Chief Economist, R3

What was covered:

• How Trump’s trade policy differs from Biden’s (if at all).
• US-China trade relations and economic wargaming – how increasing tariffs on 818 categories of Chinese goods impacts 2025 policy.
• How a second Trump presidency could impact trade relations between the US and Africa and the Middle East.
• What does the decline of multilateral trade agreements mean for ongoing negotiations and existing trade pacts (think: withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership and replacing NAFTA with the USMCA agreement)?
• Money markets: with US stocks surging and European renewable stocks falling, how Trump’s stance on climate change and energy policy might impact global commodity markets and trade flows.
• What we can expect Trump’s impact to be, on trade and SCF.
• What regions are likely to be singled out from a more combative trade policy, and what methods there are for assessing and monitoring as the effects of Trump become realised.
• The impact of protectionist trade on currency markets and international capital flows.